No one doubts that the fundamental reason for Trump’s success in the polls is his opposition to Mexican illegal immigrants. There are associated factors of his style and presentation, but the ethnic issues: Anglo and Hispanic; can not be missed.
We have all noticed the endless references on public radio and television to the fact that in a few generations, white people will no longer be a majority in the United States. White people can not miss what is only too obvious. The speaker, a Latina comes to mind, often seems to get some satisfaction from the observation. In fact she seems to relish the prospect.
Now every country is to some extent an ethnic expression. And the observation is not original with me, that it would be very unusual for English speaking whites; a large, creative, intelligent and self-conscious ethnic group, would just abandon their position as cultural hegemon.
Ann Coulter and Donald Trump were predictable. The timing was cloudy, but some white assertion was inevitable.
Can Ann Coulter and Donald Trump prevail and stop the further “Latinization” of America?
My guess is – “Probably not.” Without looking at the numbers in detail, there is no way to know. But to create, in effect, an immigration policy that revived pre-1965 quotas, one would have to justify an explicitly racial, or ethnic, policy that is just too inconsistent with the racial and ethnic dogma that has represented the basic public conversation in schools and the major media since 1968.
We see how tough it has been to construct a fence. How much tougher it would be justify a racial preference for whites. Ann Coulter makes the argument to base immigration flows on the standard of what is good for the U.S. But the supply of white Ph.D.’s who want American citizenship will not solve the need for low skilled labor in certain industries, and will not offer a big enough supply of young people to counter the effect of the ageing of America.
The general issue cannot be avoided. Europe and the developed economies in Asia: Japan and South Korea; demonstrate different ways of dealing with the low birth rates probably inherent in an industrializing economy. Industrialized economies need workers. Some of the work is unpleasant and poorly paid. Italians played the role in Germany a generation or so ago that Mexicans play in the U.S. today. The Italians, from an EU country probably enjoyed a better status than the Turks who replaced them.
As I have argued in this blog, the move from a peasantry to an industrializing economy inevitably involves the introduction of a school system and the differentiation of the workforce by IQ. Some of the representatives of the peasantry will do well, some will not.
Second and third generation Mexicans have much higher representation in the middle class than you would guess hearing Donald Trump or Ann Coulter.
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